We’ve sold out young people, but not in the way you think

So, in the fall-out from the EU Referendum, here’s the much-shown graph of how three-quarters of young people polled said they would vote Remain, and how they were sold out by older people voting Leave.

EURef - Voting

But wait a minute… Sky’s final poll says only about a third of people aged 18-24 may have voted.

EURef - Turnout

So the votes for Remain as a percentage of eligible voters could actually have been the lowest in the 18-24 age group.

EURef - Adjusted

Why was turnout so low? I don’t know. Maybe it always has been. But I suggest our young people are so disengaged now because we sold them out a long time ago. What do we do about it?

And why were there no exit polls, which would give us better information?

Data sources

  Turnout Remain Leave
18-24 36% 73% 27%
25-34 58% 62% 38%
35-44 72% 52% 48%
45-54 75% 44% 56%
55-64 81% 43% 57%
65+ 83% 40% 60%

Projected voting adjusted for projected turnout

  Remain Did not vote Leave
18-24 26% 64% 10%
25-34 36% 42% 22%
35-44 37% 28% 35%
45-54 33% 25% 42%
55-64 35% 19% 46%
65+ 33% 17% 50%
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